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Growth: Normal
How fast the economy is producing and spending. Growth momentum is close to its 20-year middle.
Score 0.52 on a −2 to +2 scale: the average of 6 indicators, each placed by where today sits in its last 20 years. Indicators where a higher number means less growth momentum are flipped.
Indicators
Connections
New businesses tend to hire once they get going. Typical lag: 6-12 months. Strongest match 10 months later (correlation 0.27, 228 observations since 2007).
Inversions have come before most U.S. recessions, with long and variable lags. Typical lag: 6-24 months. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation -0.26 in the same period (115 observations since 1996).
Higher borrowing costs cool building and buying. Typical lag: 3-12 months. Strongest match 5 months later (correlation -0.33, 364 observations since 1996).
Harder credit can slow new business formation. Typical lag: 1-4 quarters. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation 0.21 3 quarters later (73 observations since 2007).
Consumer spending is about two-thirds of GDP. Typical lag: same quarter. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.78, 123 observations since 1996).
Coincident indicator of the business cycle. Typical lag: same period. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.85, 123 observations since 1996).
Rising delinquencies hint at stretched households and slower spending. Typical lag: 1-3 quarters. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.52, 122 observations since 1996).
Aggregate company sales should track the economy's growth. Typical lag: same quarter. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.
When companies pay more to borrow, they invest and produce less. Typical lag: 3-9 months. Strongest match 6 months later (correlation -0.57, 363 observations since 1996).
A wider mortgage spread makes home loans pricier even if Treasury yields don't move. Typical lag: 0-6 months. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation -0.27, 368 observations since 1996).
Tighter card approvals take spending power away from households. Typical lag: 0-6 months. Strongest match 1 quarter later (correlation -0.54, 118 observations since 1997).
Firms borrow when they plan to expand; falling loan demand signals cautious businesses. Typical lag: 0-3 months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.36, 123 observations since 1996).