via lenders and bond investors pulling back together · Moderate link (0.64)
+64 bps
measured 12 months out · range +42 bps to +106 bps
2.12%
by ~Nov 2027 · now 1.5%
Nasdaq Composite
Weak link (0.36)
−11 % pts
measured 12 months out · range −13 % pts to −7.6 % pts
-1.1%
by ~Nov 2027 · now 9.9%
Housing starts
via harder financing for builders · Weak link (0.33)
−88K
measured 12 months out · range −154K to −56K
1.13M
by ~Nov 2027 · now 1.22M/yr
Real GDP
Weak link (0.37)
−0.9 % pts
measured 12 months out · range −1.5 % pts to −0.4 % pts
1.1%
by ~Nov 2027 · now 2.1%
Unemployment rate
via small firms hiring less · Weak link (0.30)
+0.66 % pts
measured 12 months out · range −0.23 % pts to +1.55 % pts
4.76%
by ~Nov 2027 · now 4.1%
Industrial production
Moderate link (0.41)
−2.2 % pts
measured 18 months out · range −4.2 % pts to −0.7 % pts
0.1%
by ~May 2028 · now 2.2%
Job openings
via small firms hiring less · Moderate link (0.45)
−648K
measured 18 months out · range −786K to −556K
6.87M
by ~May 2028 · now 7.52M
Credit card delinquency rate
via households losing easy credit · Moderate link (0.58)
+0.44 % pts
measured 18 months out · range +0.09 % pts to +0.91 % pts
3.29%
by ~May 2028 · now 2.9%
How it works: for each pair we measured how much the second indicator has moved, on average, per unit of the first indicator's 12-month move, over up to 30 years. The path repeats that measurement at different delays, so you can see when an effect builds, peaks and fades; the shaded band shows how much it has varied from decade to decade, and the dot marks the headline number. The ballpark adds the typical response to today's level and assumes nothing else changes, which never quite happens. Treat it as a rough guide, not a prediction.