USA Economy Now

[ Everything is a trade-off ]

Trade-offs

Gaining on one side has tended to cost on the other
RIGHT NOW
CPI, all items3.7%Unemployment rate4.1%

CPI, all items is high (82th percentile of 20 years) and Unemployment rate is near normal (28th). The heavier side sits lower.

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CPI, all items: % vs. a year earlier →Unemployment rate →
EarlierLatest 12 monthsRecessions

Hot prices have tended to come with low unemployment, and cooling prices has usually cost jobs.

Correlation runs from −1 to +1. Here a negative number is the trade-off: the two move in opposite directions. History, not a forecast.View on chart →