About USA Economy Now

A free, educational guide to where the U.S. economy stands, built only from official public data and explained in plain English.

How the readings work

Every indicator is compared with its own last 20 years. Its percentile says how today ranks: the 90th percentile means higher than 90% of readings since then. That percentile becomes a score from −2 (lowest) to +2 (highest). Each of the eight readings averages the scores of its indicators, flipping the ones that point the other way (higher unemployment means a weaker labor market, for example).

The headline line at the top combines the Growth and Inflation readings. It describes where things stand, not where they are going.

How the relationships are tested

Each link starts as a hypothesis from economics. Every day we test it against up to 30 years of data: does the first indicator line up with the second, either at the same time or up to two years later? Links are marked Data agrees, Mixed, Weak or Data disagrees.

A correlation shows that two things have moved together, not that one causes the other. Year-over-year data also makes correlations look stronger than independent data would. Treat these as clues, not proof.

Sources

FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, republishing data from BLS, BEA, Census, the Department of Labor, EIA, the Federal Reserve Board and others.
U.S. Treasury Fiscal Data: debt, the Monthly Treasury Statement and interest rates on federal debt.
SEC EDGAR: revenue reported by public companies.
USAspending.gov: federal contract and grant spending by state.

Some series (ICE BofA credit spreads, Nasdaq, Cboe VIX, Freddie Mac mortgage rates) are copyrighted by their providers and shown for educational, non-commercial use. Data is refreshed daily; last update Nov 15, 2026, with 20 source(s) showing their last good data.

Not advice

This site is for education. Nothing here is investment, financial or legal advice.