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Industrial production

Industrial production is up 2.2% from a year ago and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 63% of readings since 2006.

Latest (vs. a year ago)

2.2%

As of

Sep 2026

3-month change

+0.78 % pts

1-year change

+0.38 % pts

20-year percentile

63rd

20-year median

1.3%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Output of factories, mines and utilities. A higher reading means more growth momentum in the Growth reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier.

What it affects next

Industrial production is rising: 2.2% (+0.78 % pts in 3 months, 63rd percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

→Real GDP: has tended to rise in the same month. Not following yet
So far it is moving the other way (−0.13 % pts over 3 months), which is worth watching. Link strength 0.85.

What is driving it

←Corporate bond spread (Baa minus 10Y) is falling, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising about 6 months later.
Link strength 0.57. When companies pay more to borrow, they invest and produce less.
←Business loan demand, small firms is falling, which has historically lined up with this indicator falling at the same time.
Link strength 0.36. Firms borrow when they plan to expand; falling loan demand signals cautious businesses.

All tested links

Industrial productionmoves withReal GDPData agrees
Coincident indicator of the business cycle. Typical lag: same period. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.85, 123 observations since 1996).
Corporate bond spread (Baa minus 10Y)leadsIndustrial productionData agrees
When companies pay more to borrow, they invest and produce less. Typical lag: 3-9 months. Strongest match 6 months later (correlation -0.57, 363 observations since 1996).
Business loan demand, small firmssignalsIndustrial productionData agrees
Firms borrow when they plan to expand; falling loan demand signals cautious businesses. Typical lag: 0-3 months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.36, 123 observations since 1996).

Source: Federal Reserve via FRED (series INDPRO).