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Real GDP

Real GDP is up 2.1% from a year ago and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 39% of readings since 2006.

Latest (vs. a year ago)

2.1%

Latest level

$24.6 trillion a year (inflation-adjusted)

As of

Q3 2026

3-month change

−0.13 % pts

1-year change

−0.54 % pts

20-year percentile

39th

20-year median

2.3%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Size of the economy after inflation. A higher reading means more growth momentum in the Growth reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier.

What it affects next

It is close to normal and not moving much, so there is no ripple to trace right now.

What is driving it

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

All tested links

Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y)leadsReal GDPData disagrees
Inversions have come before most U.S. recessions, with long and variable lags. Typical lag: 6-24 months. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation -0.26 in the same period (115 observations since 1996).
Retail salesdrivesReal GDPData agrees
Consumer spending is about two-thirds of GDP. Typical lag: same quarter. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.78, 123 observations since 1996).
Industrial productionmoves withReal GDPData agrees
Coincident indicator of the business cycle. Typical lag: same period. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.85, 123 observations since 1996).
Company revenue growth (median)confirmsReal GDPUntested
Aggregate company sales should track the economy's growth. Typical lag: same quarter. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.

Source: BEA via FRED (series GDPC1).