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Retail sales

Retail sales is up 6.3% from a year ago and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is high by historical standards: higher than 82% of readings since 2006.

Latest (vs. a year ago)

6.3%

Latest level

$745 billion a month

As of

Sep 2026

3-month change

+0.36 % pts

1-year change

+2.60 % pts

20-year percentile

82nd

20-year median

3.7%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. How much consumers are spending at stores and online. A higher reading means more growth momentum in the Growth reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier.

What it affects next

Retail sales is unusually high: 6.3%, 82nd percentile of the last 20 years. Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

→Real GDP: has tended to rise in the same month. Not following yet
So far it is moving the other way (−0.13 % pts over 3 months), which is worth watching. Link strength 0.78.

What is driving it

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

All tested links

Retail salesdrivesReal GDPData agrees
Consumer spending is about two-thirds of GDP. Typical lag: same quarter. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.78, 123 observations since 1996).
Credit card delinquency ratesignalsRetail salesData agrees
Rising delinquencies hint at stretched households and slower spending. Typical lag: 1-3 quarters. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.52, 122 observations since 1996).
Credit card lending standardspressuresRetail salesData agrees
Tighter card approvals take spending power away from households. Typical lag: 0-6 months. Strongest match 1 quarter later (correlation -0.54, 118 observations since 1997).

Source: Census via FRED (series RSAFS).