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Credit card delinquency rate
Credit card delinquency rate is 2.9% and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 56% of readings since 2006.
What it affects next
It is close to normal and not moving much, so there is no ripple to trace right now.
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Job losses make it harder to keep up with payments. Typical lag: 1-4 quarters. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation -0.45 6 quarters later (122 observations since 1996).
Rising delinquencies hint at stretched households and slower spending. Typical lag: 1-3 quarters. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.52, 122 observations since 1996).
When banks cut off credit card access, stretched borrowers can't roll balances and more fall behind. Typical lag: 3-9 months. Strongest match 2 quarters later (correlation 0.60, 116 observations since 1997).
Source: Federal Reserve via FRED (series DRCCLACBS).