Home / Labor / Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate

Unemployment rate is 4.1% and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 28% of readings since 2006.

Latest (latest reading)

4.1%

As of

Oct 2026

3-month change

0.00 % pts

1-year change

−0.30 % pts

20-year percentile

28th

20-year median

4.9%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Share of people looking for work who can't find it. A higher reading means less labor market strength in the Labor reading.

What it affects next

It is close to normal and not moving much, so there is no ripple to trace right now.

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

Initial jobless claimsleadsUnemployment rateData agrees
Layoff filings show up weekly, before the monthly jobless rate moves. Typical lag: 1-3 months. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation 0.81, 366 observations since 1996).
High-yield credit spreadleadsUnemployment rateUntested
Credit stress tends to come before layoffs. Typical lag: 3-9 months. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.
Unemployment ratedrivesCredit card delinquency rateMixed evidence
Job losses make it harder to keep up with payments. Typical lag: 1-4 quarters. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation -0.45 6 quarters later (122 observations since 1996).
Yield curve (10Y minus 3M)leadsUnemployment rateData disagrees
An inverted 10Y-3M curve (below zero) has come before every U.S. recession since the 1960s, usually by a year or more. Typical lag: 12-24 months. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation 0.26 in the same period (352 observations since 1996).

Source: BLS via FRED (series UNRATE).