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Yield curve (10Y minus 3M)

Yield curve (10Y minus 3M) is 0.8% and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 37% of readings since 2006.

Latest (latest reading)

0.8%

As of

Nov 13, 2026

3-month change

+1 bps

1-year change

+68 bps

20-year percentile

37th

20-year median

1.4%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. The Fed's favorite recession signal; below zero has come before every recession since the 1960s. A higher reading means less rate tightness in the Rates reading.

What it affects next

It is close to normal and not moving much, so there is no ripple to trace right now.

What is driving it

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

All tested links

Yield curve (10Y minus 3M)leadsUnemployment rateData disagrees
An inverted 10Y-3M curve (below zero) has come before every U.S. recession since the 1960s, usually by a year or more. Typical lag: 12-24 months. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation 0.26 in the same period (352 observations since 1996).
Fed funds ratepressuresYield curve (10Y minus 3M)Data agrees
Fed hikes lift short rates faster than long rates, flattening or inverting the curve. Typical lag: 0-6 months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.84, 371 observations since 1996).

Source: FRED (series T10Y3M).