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High-yield credit spread

High-yield credit spread is 3.2% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 72% of readings since 2023.

Latest (latest reading)

3.2%

As of

Nov 12, 2026

3-month change

+49 bps

1-year change

+18 bps

20-year percentile

72nd

20-year median

3.0%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Extra yield risky companies pay; widens under stress. A higher reading means more credit stress in the Credit reading.

What it affects next

High-yield credit spread is rising: 3.2% (+49 bps in 3 months, 72nd percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

No tested downstream links to trace yet.

What is driving it

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

All tested links

High-yield credit spreadsignalsNasdaq CompositeUntested
Widening spreads signal stress, usually alongside falling stocks. Typical lag: same period. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.
High-yield credit spreadleadsUnemployment rateUntested
Credit stress tends to come before layoffs. Typical lag: 3-9 months. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.

Source: ICE BofA via FRED (series BAMLH0A0HYM2). This series is copyrighted by its provider and shown here for educational, non-commercial use.