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Nasdaq Composite

Nasdaq Composite is up 9.9% from a year ago and has been falling over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 36% of readings since 2006.

Latest (vs. a year ago)

9.9%

Latest level

25,136 points

As of

Nov 13, 2026

3-month change

−13 % pts

1-year change

−9.02 % pts

20-year percentile

36th

20-year median

17.3%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Tech-heavy stock index. A higher reading means more risk appetite in the Markets reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier.

What it affects next

Nasdaq Composite is falling: 9.9% (−13 % pts in 3 months, 36th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

No tested downstream links to trace yet.

What is driving it

←10Y real yield is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator falling about 1 month later.
Link strength 0.27. Higher real yields lower the present value of future profits; growth stocks are most sensitive.
←VIX is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator falling at the same time.
Link strength 0.44. Volatility spikes usually come with selloffs.
←Broad dollar index is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator falling at the same time.
Link strength 0.51. A strong dollar shrinks overseas earnings of multinationals.
←Corporate bond spread (Baa minus 10Y) is falling, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising at the same time.
Link strength 0.54. Credit stress and falling stocks usually arrive together.

All tested links

Fed balance sheetsupportsNasdaq CompositeData agrees
Fed asset buying adds liquidity, often supportive for risk assets. Typical lag: weeks-months. Strongest match 10 months later (correlation 0.26, 266 observations since 2003).
10Y real yieldpressuresNasdaq CompositeData agrees
Higher real yields lower the present value of future profits; growth stocks are most sensitive. Typical lag: same period. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation -0.27, 274 observations since 2004).
High-yield credit spreadsignalsNasdaq CompositeUntested
Widening spreads signal stress, usually alongside falling stocks. Typical lag: same period. Not enough overlapping history to test yet.
VIXsignalsNasdaq CompositeData agrees
Volatility spikes usually come with selloffs. Typical lag: same day. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.44, 371 observations since 1996).
Broad dollar indexpressuresNasdaq CompositeData agrees
A strong dollar shrinks overseas earnings of multinationals. Typical lag: 1-2 quarters. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.51, 239 observations since 2007).
Corporate bond spread (Baa minus 10Y)moves withNasdaq CompositeData agrees
Credit stress and falling stocks usually arrive together. Typical lag: 0 months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.54, 371 observations since 1996).

Source: Nasdaq via FRED (series NASDAQCOM). This series is copyrighted by its provider and shown here for educational, non-commercial use.