10Y real yield
10Y real yield is 2.9% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is near the top of its range: higher than 99% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
2.9%
As of
Nov 12, 2026
3-month change
+47 bps
1-year change
+105 bps
20-year percentile
99th
20-year median
0.7%
What it is. Long-term rate after expected inflation. A higher reading means more rate tightness in the Rates reading.
What it affects next
10Y real yield is rising: 2.9% (+47 bps in 3 months, 99th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
- →Nasdaq Composite: has tended to fall about 1 month later. Following
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Higher real yields lower the present value of future profits; growth stocks are most sensitive. Typical lag: same period. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation -0.27, 274 observations since 2004).
Source: Treasury via FRED (series DFII10).