VIX
VIX is 18.7 and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 58% of readings since 2006.
What it affects next
VIX is rising: 18.7 (+4.07 in 3 months, 58th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
- →S&P 500: has tended to fall in the same month. Following
- →Nasdaq Composite: has tended to fall in the same month. Following
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Volatility spikes usually come with selloffs. Typical lag: same day. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.44, 371 observations since 1996).
The VIX is built from S&P 500 options; volatility spikes come with selloffs. Typical lag: same day. Strongest match in the same period (correlation -0.52, 109 observations since 2017).
Source: Cboe via FRED (series VIXCLS). This series is copyrighted by its provider and shown here for educational, non-commercial use.