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Initial jobless claims
Initial jobless claims is 200,000 and has held roughly steady over the last 3 months. That is near the bottom of its range: higher than 2% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
200,000
As of
Nov 7, 2026
3-month change
−12,000
1-year change
−28,000
20-year percentile
2nd
20-year median
284,000
What it is. New layoff filings each week; earliest labor signal. A higher reading means less labor market strength in the Labor reading.
What it affects next
Initial jobless claims is unusually low: 200,000, 2nd percentile of the last 20 years. Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
- →Unemployment rate: has tended to fall about 1 month later. No move yet
- →Credit card delinquency rate: has tended to fall in the same month. Following
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Layoff filings show up weekly, before the monthly jobless rate moves. Typical lag: 1-3 months. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation 0.81, 366 observations since 1996).
Source: DOL via FRED (series ICSA).