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Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y)
Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y) is +27 bps and has been falling over the last 3 months. That is low by historical standards: higher than 25% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
+27 bps
As of
Nov 13, 2026
3-month change
−24 bps
1-year change
−26 bps
20-year percentile
25th
20-year median
+95 bps
What it is. Below zero (inverted) has often come before recessions. A higher reading means less rate tightness in the Rates reading.
What it affects next
Yield curve (10Y minus 2Y) is falling: +27 bps (−24 bps in 3 months, 25th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
No tested downstream links to trace yet.
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Inversions have come before most U.S. recessions, with long and variable lags. Typical lag: 6-24 months. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation -0.26 in the same period (115 observations since 1996).
Source: FRED (series T10Y2Y).