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Housing starts

Housing starts is 1.22M/yr and has been falling over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 52% of readings since 2006.

Latest (latest reading)

1.22M/yr

As of

Sep 2026

3-month change

−218K

1-year change

−98K

20-year percentile

52nd

20-year median

1.20M/yr

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. New homes being built (thousands, annual rate). A higher reading means more growth momentum in the Growth reading.

What it affects next

Housing starts is falling: 1.22M/yr (−218K in 3 months, 52nd percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

No tested downstream links to trace yet.

What is driving it

←30Y mortgage rate is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator falling about 5 months later.
Link strength 0.33. Higher borrowing costs cool building and buying.

All tested links

30Y mortgage ratepressuresHousing startsData agrees
Higher borrowing costs cool building and buying. Typical lag: 3-12 months. Strongest match 5 months later (correlation -0.33, 364 observations since 1996).
Mortgage spread (30Y mortgage minus 10Y)pressuresHousing startsData agrees
A wider mortgage spread makes home loans pricier even if Treasury yields don't move. Typical lag: 0-6 months. Strongest match 1 month later (correlation -0.27, 368 observations since 1996).

Source: Census via FRED (series HOUST).