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30Y mortgage rate

30Y mortgage rate is 7.1% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is near the top of its range: higher than 98% of readings since 2006.

Latest (latest reading)

7.1%

As of

Nov 12, 2026

3-month change

+44 bps

1-year change

+89 bps

20-year percentile

98th

20-year median

4.5%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Average rate on a new 30-year home loan. A higher reading means more rate tightness in the Rates reading.

What it affects next

30Y mortgage rate is rising: 7.1% (+44 bps in 3 months, 98th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

→Housing starts: has tended to fall about 5 months later. Watch
If history repeats, watch for it around April 2027. Link strength 0.33.

What is driving it

←10Y Treasury yield is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising at the same time.
Link strength 0.88. Mortgage rates track the 10Y plus a spread.

All tested links

10Y Treasury yielddrives30Y mortgage rateData agrees
Mortgage rates track the 10Y plus a spread. Typical lag: same week. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.88, 371 observations since 1996).
30Y mortgage ratepressuresHousing startsData agrees
Higher borrowing costs cool building and buying. Typical lag: 3-12 months. Strongest match 5 months later (correlation -0.33, 364 observations since 1996).

Source: Freddie Mac via FRED (series MORTGAGE30US).