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10Y Treasury yield

10Y Treasury yield is 5.1% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is near the top of its range: higher than 99% of readings since 2006.

Latest (latest reading)

5.1%

As of

Nov 12, 2026

3-month change

+47 bps

1-year change

+102 bps

20-year percentile

99th

20-year median

2.8%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. Benchmark long-term interest rate. A higher reading means more rate tightness in the Rates reading.

What it affects next

10Y Treasury yield is rising: 5.1% (+47 bps in 3 months, 99th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

→30Y mortgage rate: has tended to rise in the same month. Following
It is: +44 bps over 3 months. Link strength 0.88.
→Housing starts: has tended to fall about 5 months later. Watch
If history repeats, watch for it around April 2027. Link strength 0.33.

What is driving it

←Fed funds rate is high, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising at the same time.
Link strength 0.52. The expected path of short rates feeds long rates, which also reflect growth and inflation expectations.

All tested links

Fed funds ratedrives10Y Treasury yieldData agrees
The expected path of short rates feeds long rates, which also reflect growth and inflation expectations. Typical lag: days-months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.52, 371 observations since 1996).
10Y Treasury yielddrives30Y mortgage rateData agrees
Mortgage rates track the 10Y plus a spread. Typical lag: same week. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.88, 371 observations since 1996).
Total public debtpressures10Y Treasury yieldData agrees
More Treasury supply may push long rates up; size of the effect is disputed. Typical lag: years. Strongest match 24 months later (correlation 0.22, 347 observations since 1996).

Source: Treasury via FRED (series DGS10).