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Total public debt
Total public debt is up 6.5% from a year ago and has been falling over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 48% of readings since 2006.
Latest (vs. a year ago)
6.5%
Latest level
$40.61 trillion
As of
Nov 12, 2026
3-month change
−1.27 % pts
1-year change
+0.53 % pts
20-year percentile
48th
20-year median
6.6%
What it is. Total federal debt outstanding. A higher reading means more fiscal pressure in the Fiscal reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier. Note: the latest update failed, so this shows the last good data.
What it affects next
Total public debt is falling: 6.5% (−1.27 % pts in 3 months, 48th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
No tested downstream links to trace yet.
What is driving it
- ←Federal deficit (rolling 12 months) is rising, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising at the same time.
All tested links
Deficits are financed by borrowing. Typical lag: same month. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.56, 117 observations since 2017).
More Treasury supply may push long rates up; size of the effect is disputed. Typical lag: years. Strongest match 24 months later (correlation 0.22, 347 observations since 1996).
Source: Treasury Fiscal Data.