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Federal deficit (rolling 12 months)
Federal deficit (rolling 12 months) is $2.11T and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is high by historical standards: higher than 79% of readings since 2016.
Latest (latest reading)
$2.11T
As of
Oct 2026
3-month change
+$167B
1-year change
+$310B
20-year percentile
79th
20-year median
$1.63T
What it is. Spending minus revenue over the last 12 months ($ billions). A higher reading means more fiscal pressure in the Fiscal reading. Note: the latest update failed, so this shows the last good data.
What it affects next
Federal deficit (rolling 12 months) is rising: $2.11T (+$167B in 3 months, 79th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
- →Total public debt: has tended to rise in the same month. Not following yet
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
All tested links
Deficits are financed by borrowing. Typical lag: same month. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.56, 117 observations since 2017).
Source: Treasury Fiscal Data.