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Business applications

Business applications is up 0.5% from a year ago and has been falling over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 43% of readings since 2007.

Latest (vs. a year ago)

0.5%

Latest level

109,410 a week

As of

Oct 31, 2026

3-month change

−9.79 % pts

1-year change

−16 % pts

20-year percentile

43rd

20-year median

2.5%

Monthly averages, last 20 years. Shaded band = the middle half of readings.

What it is. New business filings; a read on entrepreneurship. A higher reading means more growth momentum in the Growth reading. Shown as the change from a year earlier.

What it affects next

Business applications is falling: 0.5% (−9.79 % pts in 3 months, 43rd percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.

→Nonfarm payrolls: has tended to fall about 10 months later. Watch
If history repeats, watch for it around August 2027. Link strength 0.27.

What is driving it

None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.

All tested links

Business applicationsleadsNonfarm payrollsData agrees
New businesses tend to hire once they get going. Typical lag: 6-12 months. Strongest match 10 months later (correlation 0.27, 228 observations since 2007).
Lending standards, small firmspressuresBusiness applicationsData disagrees
Harder credit can slow new business formation. Typical lag: 1-4 quarters. The strongest pattern runs the other way: correlation 0.21 3 quarters later (73 observations since 2007).

Source: Census via FRED (series BUSAPPWNSAUS).