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2Y Treasury yield
2Y Treasury yield is 4.9% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is near the top of its range: higher than 97% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
4.9%
As of
Nov 12, 2026
3-month change
+71 bps
1-year change
+130 bps
20-year percentile
97th
20-year median
1.2%
What it is. Short-term Treasury rate that tracks where markets expect the Fed to set rates over the next two years. A higher reading means more rate tightness in the Rates reading.
What it affects next
2Y Treasury yield is rising: 4.9% (+71 bps in 3 months, 97th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
No tested downstream links to trace yet.
What is driving it
- ←Fed funds rate is high, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising at the same time.
All tested links
The 2-year yield moves with where markets expect the Fed rate to be over the next two years. Typical lag: 0-3 months. Strongest match in the same period (correlation 0.82, 371 observations since 1996).
Source: Treasury via FRED (series DGS2).