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Avg interest rate on federal debt
Avg interest rate on federal debt is 3.6% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is high by historical standards: higher than 88% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
3.6%
As of
Oct 2026
3-month change
+13 bps
1-year change
+23 bps
20-year percentile
88th
20-year median
2.6%
What it is. What the government pays on its interest-bearing debt. A higher reading means more fiscal pressure in the Fiscal reading. Note: the latest update failed, so this shows the last good data.
What it affects next
Avg interest rate on federal debt is rising: 3.6% (+13 bps in 3 months, 88th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
No tested downstream links to trace yet.
What is driving it
- ←Fed funds rate is high, which has historically lined up with this indicator rising about 4 months later.
All tested links
As old debt rolls over, higher rates raise the government's interest bill. Typical lag: months-years. Strongest match 4 months later (correlation 0.88, 294 observations since 2002).
Source: Treasury Fiscal Data.