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10Y yield minus Fed funds
10Y yield minus Fed funds is 1.2% and has been rising over the last 3 months. That is in its normal range: higher than 46% of readings since 2006.
Latest (latest reading)
1.2%
As of
Nov 12, 2026
3-month change
+22 bps
1-year change
+101 bps
20-year percentile
46th
20-year median
1.4%
What it is. How tight Fed policy is versus long rates; deeply negative means the Fed is squeezing hard. A higher reading means less rate tightness in the Rates reading.
What it affects next
10Y yield minus Fed funds is rising: 1.2% (+22 bps in 3 months, 46th percentile of the last 20 years). Here is what has tended to follow, based on links the data backs up.
No tested downstream links to trace yet.
What is driving it
None of its tested drivers is moving much right now.
Source: FRED (series T10YFF).